According to Ars Technica, only 2,000 CableCards were requested this past summer. That’s 2,000 for the entire United States. That’s 2,000 for every cable provider. Wow. From the article:
And yet, in the last three months, only 2,000 CableCARDs have been requested by customers—a number that covers the entire US. When the top ten cable operators are lumped together, they’ve only provided 374,000 CableCARDs in the entire history of the program.
This does not bode well for Windows Media Center or Tivo for that matter. Ars did not say how many CableCards were paired with computers though it has to be low. It makes you wonder why Microsoft and ATI would even bother with digital cable tuners.
How much longer until Dell and HP stop offering digital cable tuners all together? If this happens, I think Media Center is for all intensive purposes dead as a set-top box replacement. Sure, smaller OEMs might still offer digital cable tuners, but they would not be even a blip on the radar.
The lack of CableCard uptake combined with Windows TV Pack completely self-destructing makes me wonder whether high definition television has a future with Media Center. Sure, ATSC and QAM will always be hanging around, but they are niche products at best.
Hopefully Windows 7 can deliver a worthwhile media center experience.
September 25th, 2008 at 10:45 am
I conclude from personal use and setting up whole house audio/video systems for clients that CableLabs has done a great job of hobbling CableCARD adoption. I would not be surprised to see AMD exit the OCUR modem business as they rationalize their business model. Microsoft’s Media Center (MC) concept may survive as it allows for playing media from multiple sources, not just cable TV. However, the MC extender concept is also likely to go the way of the dodo.
Big Content, cable and satellite companies are not likely to allow Microsoft, Apple or anyone else control of the distribution model. They have seen what allowing this has done to the control of popular music business with Apple’s iTunes/iPod business.
New methods of distribution of content to the consumer household and within the household are in “beta” and will be for a long time. Most of the world will still use their existing methods for several more years until this sorts out.
September 25th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Richard,
I think you are right. It is sad though. If the FCC had guts, they would step in.
September 25th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
I think one of the problems with the cablecard is that while it encourages set top box competition, it discourage video competition. I have a TiVo 3 and while I love it to death, I have no choice but to subscribe to Comcast if I want to get high def signals. Comcast knows this, so they have no desire to compete for my business. If satellite and AT&T were forced to support cablecard, then consumers would be more open to the technology because it would mean that not only could they have their own set top box, but they could take it to the service of their choice if their cable provider was abusing them.